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according to TradingBeats monitoring, the U.S.

September nonfarm payroll data will be released tonight at 20:30.

On the previous trading day, the S&P 500 index closed at 7,666.45 points, about 1.7% away from its record closing price of 7,798.99 points; the Nasdaq 100 index closed at 30,501.56 points, only about 0.75% away from its record closing price of 30,732.40 points.

Both major indices have approached their previous highs.

How are the market's internal structure and large funds positioning themselves?

Indices approach new highs, gains still concentrated in AI heavyweight stocks On the previous trading day, Nvidia rose about 1.1%, becoming one of the stocks contributing the most to the S&P's rise, while Micron rose about 3% over the same period.

As of September 30th, Nvidia's weight in the S&P 500 was about 8.38%, ranking first among all constituent stocks, with Apple and Microsoft accounting for about 7.37% and 5.78%, respectively.

If Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Meta, and Micron are combined, their weight in the S&P 500 has reached about 30.2%.

The performance of AI and related technology leaders still has a significant impact on the direction of the index.

At the same time, according to relevant market reports, the 10-year U.S.

Treasury yield rose to 5.34%.

U.S.

stocks appear close to new highs on the surface, but internally they have clearly been losing strength: over the past month, the median S&P 500 constituent stock fell about 5%, the equal-weighted index fell for seven consecutive weeks, bank stocks dropped more than 12% from their highs, and utilities approached a bear market.

The current index is still being held at a high level by a few AI giants.

If AI profit expectations loosen, the broad weakness hidden beneath the index may be exposed in a concentrated way.

New funds lean toward going long According to TradingBeats monitoring, from the opening of U.S.

stocks this Monday to now, there have been a total of 6 new AI-related long positions on Hyperliquid that are still worth more than $1 million, with total net buying of about $13.309 million, mainly concentrated in Micron, Nvidia, Meta, and Google; during the same period, two new short positions in Micron totaling about $3.001 million appeared.

Looking only at newly entered funds, the direction is still clearly biased toward longs.

Existing funds show: during the same period, 5 old long positions in Nvidia, Google, and Meta were all cleared, with cumulative selling of about $20.038 million; in addition, existing short positions continued to add to the above AI leaders and Amazon, with total newly added short exposure of about $6.384 million.

Among them, two addresses closed a total of about $14.3 million in Nvidia long positions yesterday, but still hold a combined about $17.23 million in SP500 long positions, which is closer to reducing exposure to a single AI leader rather than withdrawing from the index at the same time (0x044a, 0xdfb6).

At the same time, another address opened a new Nvidia long position of about $3.01 million, Google saw a new long position of about $1.17 million, and Micron had a new short fill of about $1.5 million.

The order book structure shows: near $225.3-$229.4, Nvidia still has about $1.786 million in new long buy orders, but above at $235.82-$248.22 there are simultaneously about $5.106 million in sell orders; below, Meta retains a plan to add about $2.455 million in longs, and near $1040.7, Micron has about $2.4 million in new long buy orders.

Divergence has already extended to the index side.

This morning, one address started from a flat position and shorted about 401 XYZ100 contracts, with cumulative opening of about $12.257 million at a cost of 30567.8 points (0x42bc); another address also newly opened about $4.24 million in SP500 shorts yesterday.

At the same time, SP500 has about $6.133 million in full-position take-profit orders near 7899 points, while XYZ100 has about $3.408 million in sell orders to continue adding shorts near 30702 points.

Liquidation lines Hyperliquid's SP500 and XYZ100 contracts are quoted at about 7688 points and 30624 points (USD), respectively.

If the S&P retests its previous high.

Above it, the first liquidation price for four million-dollar-level SP500 shorts is at 7863.5 points, involving current positions of about $23.65 million; of which about $18.66 million is concentrated in address (0xb4ea).

Below the current price, four major long liquidation lines are distributed from 7596.5 to 7518.9 points, involving positions of about $19.39 million, about 1.2%-2.2% away from the on-chain current price; the largest single one, about $9.58 million, is at 7518.9 points (0xcf53, 0x572c, 0x9277, 0x2322).